FIIFI TERMINAL

Market Insights

Live African sovereign and currency intelligence

30-DAY HISTORICAL FX TREND — USD/GHS

USD EXCHANGE RATES

AFRICA RISK RADAR

SOVEREIGN HEAT MAP — RISK DIMENSIONS

COUNTRY	OVERALL	FISCAL	FX	DEBT	POLITICAL	EXTERNAL
🇳🇬Nigeria	72	38	46	46	76	66
🇬🇭Ghana	22	14	36	14	16	20
🇰🇪Kenya	84	60	56	68	82	88
🇪🇹Ethiopia	97	70	72	90	99	97
🇿🇦South Africa	72	46	48	54	84	70
🇪🇬Egypt	72	60	88	66	48	68
🇸🇩Sudan	99	98	99	96	99	99
🇨🇩DRC	99	88	90	82	99	99

HIGH RISK (75+)

ELEVATED (60-74)

MODERATE (<60)

CURRENCY STRESS DASHBOARD

USD/NGN

ELEVATED

Nigeria

1,361.84

1Y CHANGE

-1.3% 1d

YTD

—

USD/GHS

MODERATE

Ghana

11.66

1Y CHANGE

+8.0% 12m

YTD

-10.2%

USD/KES

MODERATE

Kenya

129.91

1Y CHANGE

-0.7% 90d

YTD

—

USD/EGP

HIGH

Egypt

55.83

1Y CHANGE

-9.9% since 31 Aug

YTD

—

USD/ZAR

MODERATE

South Africa

16.51

1Y CHANGE

+4.3% 12m

YTD

—

USD/UGX

HIGH

Uganda

4,205

1Y CHANGE

-6.6% 30d

YTD

—

USD/ZMW

ELEVATED

Zambia

20.37

1Y CHANGE

-8.6% 90d (Oct 20, BoZ)

YTD

—

USD/XOF

LOW

WAEMU

585.50

1Y CHANGE

EUR peg

YTD

—

ELECTION TRACKER — 2026-2028

🇪🇬

Egypt

Parliamentary Vote

26 Oct Parliament Vote — Saudi Support

HIGH RISK

Two-thirds needed (398 of 596). Opposition party told members to abstain. EGP 55.83. EGX30 -3.6%.

🇳🇬

Nigeria

Macro / Public Health

Naira 1,361.84 — Ebola Case — Evacuations From SA

HIGH RISK

Record interbank turnover $1.01bn. Parallel 1,385. Reserves $55.15bn. Ebola contacts 44.

🦠

Ebola Response

Public Health

28 Oct Africa CDC Ministers Meeting

CRITICAL RISK

DRC 9,816 / 4,757 (CDC 22 Oct). Kenya 9 cases, 2 deaths. Uganda 21-day quarantine.

🏦

United States / Fed

Central Bank

28 Oct FOMC Decision

HIGH RISK

Hike priced as a live risk. Oil $116 and dollar strength drive emerging-market FX including EGP, UGX, ZMW, NGN.

🇪🇹

Ethiopia / Eritrea

Conflict

UN Letters — Adigrat And Adwa

CRITICAL RISK

Both sides accuse the other of starting the war. Ties severed since 1 Oct.

🇿🇦

South Africa

Municipal Elections

Data Week — 4 Nov Fuel Relief — 31 Dec: 66 Days

MEDIUM RISK

Rand 16.51. SARB 7.25%, MPC 19 Nov. March and March ultimatum 31 Dec.

🌍

UN Secretary-General

International

All 7 Vetoed — Sall Withdrew

MEDIUM RISK

Otunnu only African candidate. Guterres leaves 31 Dec.

AFRICAN SOVEREIGN REFINANCING MONITOR — 2026

COUNTRY	AMOUNT	INSTRUMENT	MATURITY WINDOW	RISK
🇪🇬Egypt	$5.3bn	Saudi Deposits At CBE (maturing this month)	OCTOBER — ROLLOVER NOT CONFIRMED — VOTE TODAY	HIGH
🇳🇬Nigeria	$1.63bn	Dangote Refinery IPO	WINDOW CLOSED 13 OCT — RESULT AND LISTING NOT VERIFIED	MEDIUM
🇪🇹Ethiopia	$1.0bn	Eurobond 6.625%	Defaulted — Eritrea Dispute At UN	CRITICAL
🇸🇳Senegal	NEW BOND 7.25%	Government Bond	US WANTS DEBT RESTRUCTURING WITHIN A YEAR — GENERAL STRIKE	CRITICAL
🇦🇴Angola	$1.8bn	Eurobond	Q4 2026 — BRENT $117 VS $78 EST. BREAKEVEN	LOW
🇿🇲Zambia	Post-Restructuring + $255m Lobito AfDB	Bilateral + Eurobond + AfDB	ZMW ~20.4 — FUEL SHOCK	MEDIUM
🇿🇦South Africa	2035 Benchmark	Government Bond	YIELD 8.615% — DEBT 78.4% OF GDP	LOW
🇬🇭Ghana	NEW 4-YEAR BOND GH¢4.46bn	Government Bond	GHS 11.66 — GOLD UNDER $4,000	MEDIUM

Refinancing pressure indicators — combines commercial debt maturities, multilateral repurchases and programme status. Source: Fiifi Terminal Risk Engine.

COMMODITY EXPOSURE MATRIX — FISCAL BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS

COUNTRY	COMMODITY	GDP SHARE	REVENUE	2026 PRICE	FISCAL BREAKEVEN	TREND	RISK
🇳🇬Nigeria	Oil/Gas	8%	65%	$117	$92/bbl (est.)ABOVE EST. BREAKEVEN — NAIRA STILL STEPPED DOWN 1.3%	↑	MEDIUM
🇦🇴Angola	Oil	45%	80%	$117	$78/bbl (est.)ABOVE EST. BREAKEVEN +$39	↑	LOW
🇬🇭Ghana	Gold/Oil/Cocoa	15%	35%	$3,994/oz	$1,800/oz (est.)GOLD UNDER $4,000 — WORST WEEK SINCE JUNE	↓	MEDIUM
🇿🇲Zambia	Copper	12%	70%	~$12,950/t (~$5.88/lb, 26 Oct, one source)	$5.50/lb (est.)COPPER ABOUT $5.88/LB — THIN CUSHION OVER EST. BREAKEVEN	↑	MEDIUM
🇿🇦South Africa	Gold/Platinum	8%	40%	$3,994/oz	$1,600/oz (est.)GOLD DOWN, OIL UP — NOVEMBER FUEL PRICE RISK	↓	MEDIUM
🇨🇩DRC	Cobalt/Copper/Gold	35%	70%	Cobalt not re-checked	N/AEBOLA 4,757 DEAD — KABILA FRN	↓	CRITICAL
🇪🇬Egypt	Gas/Suez/Tourism	12%	35%	EGP 55.83	N/ARECORD LOW POUND — EGX30 -3.6% — VOTE TODAY	↓	HIGH

Fiscal breakeven = oil/commodity price needed to balance budget. Red = current price below breakeven (fiscal stress). Green = current price above breakeven (fiscal buffer). Source: IMF, World Bank, Fiifi Terminal estimates.