FIIFI TERMINAL

Market Insights

Live African sovereign and currency intelligence

30-DAY HISTORICAL FX TREND — USD/GHS

USD EXCHANGE RATES

AFRICA RISK RADAR

SOVEREIGN HEAT MAP — RISK DIMENSIONS

COUNTRY	OVERALL	FISCAL	FX	DEBT	POLITICAL	EXTERNAL
🇳🇬Nigeria	68	56	42	58	90	64
🇬🇭Ghana	44	36	54	36	32	44
🇰🇪Kenya	96	84	74	90	99	98
🇪🇬Egypt	66	68	64	66	65	68
🇿🇦South Africa	97	76	48	70	99	94
🇸🇳Senegal	84	86	74	88	82	80
🇲🇱Mali	97	88	85	85	99	94
🇸🇩Sudan	98	90	92	88	99	96

HIGH RISK (75+)

ELEVATED (60-74)

MODERATE (<60)

CURRENCY STRESS DASHBOARD

USD/NGN

LOW

Nigeria

1,360.73

1Y CHANGE

-13.02%

YTD

-3.10%

USD/GHS

ELEVATED

Ghana

11.13

1Y CHANGE

+8.51%

YTD

+13.61%

USD/KES

ELEVATED

Kenya

129.45

1Y CHANGE

+0.21%

YTD

-0.93%

USD/EGP

HIGH

Egypt

52.22

1Y CHANGE

-4.32%

YTD

-4.51%

USD/ZAR

LOW

South Africa

16.26

1Y CHANGE

+9.33%

YTD

+9.33%

USD/UGX

ELEVATED

Uganda

3,770.00

1Y CHANGE

-1.62%

YTD

-4.80%

USD/ZMW

HIGH

Zambia

19.02

1Y CHANGE

-32.91%

YTD

-32.91%

USD/XOF

ELEVATED

Mali/Senegal

615.00

1Y CHANGE

-0.82%

YTD

-0.82%

ELECTION TRACKER — 2026-2028

🇪🇹

Ethiopia

General Election

PP Confirmed 457/547 — Abiy Third Term

CRITICAL RISK

24hrs post-results. No major Tigray escalation reported yet but window live. Pretoria Agreement collapsing. Eritrea tensions ongoing. Continued watch.

🇸🇩

Sudan

Civil War

Active Civil War — Escalating

CRITICAL RISK

Drone strikes kill 30+ civilians. Funeral mourners deliberately targeted El Obeid. RSF attributed. War-crimes-level escalation. North African parallel to West Africa Sahel crisis.

🇸🇴

Somalia

Constitutional Crisis

Constitutional Crisis — Ceasefire Holding

CRITICAL RISK

Ceasefire holding but opposition calls Mohamud "former president." No constitutional court. Jubaland + Puntland reject amendments.

🇬🇳

Guinea

Parliamentary + Municipal

June 1 — Results Pending

HIGH RISK

40 opposition parties dissolved. Boycotted. Legitimacy void.

🇿🇦

South Africa

Municipal Elections

Fall 2026

CRITICAL RISK

June 30 — 18 days. Johannesburg shooting 12 dead. Bafana lost opener. Nigeria 5-year ban diplomatic escalation. Ramaphosa 5-point plan implementation gap exposed.

🇳🇬

Nigeria

General Election

Early 2027

HIGH RISK

268 nationals return from SA under 5-year ban — diplomatic escalation. Watch Abuja response. Dangote 700k bpd. Multi-vector security crisis ongoing.

🇰🇪

Kenya

General Election

2027

CRITICAL RISK

Finance Bill June 30 — 18 days. Schools close June 24-28 — overlaps June 25 anniversary. Eurobond Q2 critical. Tough 2026/27 budget defended.

AFRICAN SOVEREIGN REFINANCING MONITOR — 2026

COUNTRY	AMOUNT	INSTRUMENT	MATURITY WINDOW	RISK
🇸🇳Senegal	PAID EARLY	Bond Coupons	IMF VISIT MONDAY JUNE 15	HIGH
🇸🇳Senegal	$1.8bn	IMF Programme	Disbursement Frozen	CRITICAL
🇰🇪Kenya	$2.0bn	Eurobond	Q2 2026	CRITICAL
🇪🇬Egypt	$2.1bn	Eurobond	Q2 2026	HIGH
🇪🇬Egypt	$1.4bn	IMF Repurchase	Q3 2026	HIGH
🇦🇴Angola	$1.8bn	Eurobond	Q3 2026	HIGH
🇿🇦South Africa	$2.2bn	Domestic Bond Rollovers	Q2-Q3 2026	HIGH
🇬🇭Ghana	$0.8bn	Post-Restructuring Bilateral	Q3-Q4 2026	LOW

Refinancing pressure indicators — combines commercial debt maturities, multilateral repurchases and programme status. Source: Fiifi Terminal Risk Engine.

COMMODITY EXPOSURE MATRIX — FISCAL BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS

COUNTRY	COMMODITY	GDP SHARE	REVENUE	2026 PRICE	FISCAL BREAKEVEN	TREND	RISK
🇳🇬Nigeria	Oil	8%	65%	$82	$92/bblBELOW BREAKEVEN	↑	MEDIUM
🇦🇴Angola	Oil	45%	80%	$82	$78/bblABOVE BREAKEVEN	↓	HIGH
🇬🇭Ghana	Gold/Oil/Cocoa	15%	35%	$3,200/oz	$1,800/ozSTRONG BUFFER	↑	LOW
🇿🇲Zambia	Copper	12%	70%	$9,800/t	$7,500/tABOVE BREAKEVEN	→	MEDIUM
🇿🇦South Africa	Gold/Platinum	8%	40%	$3,200/oz	$1,600/ozSTRONG BUFFER	↑	LOW
🇰🇪Kenya	Tea/Coffee	5%	25%	Stable	N/ANON-COMMODITY	→	MEDIUM
🇪🇬Egypt	Oil/Gas/Tourism	10%	30%	$82	$70/bblABOVE BREAKEVEN	↑	MEDIUM

Fiscal breakeven = oil/commodity price needed to balance budget. Red = current price below breakeven (fiscal stress). Green = current price above breakeven (fiscal buffer). Source: IMF, World Bank, Fiifi Terminal estimates.