FIIFI TERMINAL

Market Insights

Live African sovereign and currency intelligence

30-DAY HISTORICAL FX TREND — USD/GHS

USD EXCHANGE RATES

AFRICA RISK RADAR

SOVEREIGN HEAT MAP — RISK DIMENSIONS

COUNTRY	OVERALL	FISCAL	FX	DEBT	POLITICAL	EXTERNAL
🇳🇬Nigeria	52	40	28	42	60	52
🇬🇭Ghana	14	10	22	10	16	14
🇰🇪Kenya	62	58	46	64	64	60
🇪🇹Ethiopia	98	70	72	90	99	98
🇿🇦South Africa	64	46	32	50	72	62
🇸🇳Senegal	94	88	84	92	96	92
🇿🇲Zambia	58	52	72	54	52	56
🇨🇩DRC	99	88	90	82	96	99

HIGH RISK (75+)

ELEVATED (60-74)

MODERATE (<60)

CURRENCY STRESS DASHBOARD

USD/NGN

LOW

Nigeria

1,363.00

1Y CHANGE

-13.68%

YTD

-2.90%

USD/GHS

LOW

Ghana

11.08

1Y CHANGE

+5.82%

YTD

+5.82%

USD/KES

MODERATE

Kenya

129.04

1Y CHANGE

-0.19%

YTD

-0.93%

USD/EGP

HIGH

Egypt

52.22

1Y CHANGE

-4.32%

YTD

-4.51%

USD/ZAR

LOW

South Africa

16.16

1Y CHANGE

-10.85%

YTD

+10.85%

USD/UGX

LOW

Uganda

3,674.80

1Y CHANGE

-1.92%

YTD

-1.92%

USD/ZMW

HIGH

Zambia

19.02

1Y CHANGE

-32.91%

YTD

-32.91%

USD/XOF

MODERATE

WAEMU

574.92

1Y CHANGE

-6.59%

YTD

-6.59%

ELECTION TRACKER — 2026-2028

🇿🇲

Zambia

General Election

Hichilema WINS 61% — Declared

LOW RISK

Hichilema 61% vs Mundubile 38%. IMF reform model validated. SADC democratic model intact. Incoming SADC chair. Credibility concerns on record. Legal challenge expected. ZMW stabilising. AfDB $255m Lobito secured.

🇿🇦

South Africa

Municipal Elections

Fall 2026 — March March-AfriForum Alliance

HIGH RISK

March and March allied with AfriForum — cross-racial coalition with legal sophistication. December 31 ultimatum now institutionalised. Nigeria-Ghana taking SA to AU over Afrophobia. SA inflation 4.3% — SARB September cut signal. Gold $4,461. PEPFAR expiry imminent.

🇨🇩

DRC

Constitutional Crisis

C64 Deadline Passed — Dialogue Outcome Critical

CRITICAL RISK

August 15 dialogue deadline passed. C64 outcome unknown. Ebola 2,378 dead — second-largest in history. WHO: far from under control. DRC constitutional and health crises simultaneous.

🇸🇳

Senegal

Constitutional Referendum

Faye vs Sonko — Constitutional Court

CRITICAL RISK

Faye launched Kiiraay — goes to Sonko's Constitutional Court. IMF Q3 at maximum risk. 7.25% bond listed. First African Olympic event October. Patrick Vieira new Senegal coach.

🇪🇹

Ethiopia

General Election

Tigray Fano Insurrection Expanding

CRITICAL RISK

Fano insurrection in northern Ethiopia confirmed expanding. Tigray fighting ongoing. Amnesty: civilians vulnerable. Horn most dangerous since 2020.

🇿🇼

Zimbabwe

Constitutional Amendment

Anti-Amendment Protests — ZANU-PF 2037

CRITICAL RISK

Anti-amendment protests. ZANU-PF pushing 2037. ConCourt challenges. SADC addressed Zimbabwe context at August 17 summit.

🇸🇴

Somalia

Constitutional Crisis

TPS Ended — AUSSOM Finished

CRITICAL RISK

US ended TPS for Somalis August 14. AUSSOM US funding ended. Erdogan considering Turkish mandate renewal. Constitutional crisis ongoing.

AFRICAN SOVEREIGN REFINANCING MONITOR — 2026

COUNTRY	AMOUNT	INSTRUMENT	MATURITY WINDOW	RISK
🇿🇲Zambia	Post-Restructuring + $255m Lobito AfDB	Bilateral + Eurobond + AfDB	HICHILEMA WINS — INCOMING SADC CHAIR — SECURED	LOW
🇪🇹Ethiopia	$1.0bn	Eurobond 6.625%	Defaulted — Tigray Fano Insurrection Active	CRITICAL
🇸🇳Senegal	NEW BOND 7.25%	Government Bond	LISTED AUG 10 — FAYE-SONKO WAR — IMF MAX RISK	CRITICAL
🇦🇴Angola	$1.8bn	Eurobond	Q3 2026 — BRENT $89 ABOVE $78 BREAKEVEN	MEDIUM
🇪🇬Egypt	$1.4bn	IMF Repurchase	Q3 2026	HIGH
🇳🇬Nigeria	$5bn	Dangote Refinery IPO	OCTOBER 2026 — LARGEST EVER AFRICAN LISTING	LOW
🇨🇮Ivory Coast	$1.3bn	Eurobond 5.39% 15yr	ISSUED — BENCHMARK CREDIT	LOW
🇬🇭Ghana	$0.8bn	Post-Restructuring Bilateral	Q3-Q4 2026 — GOLD ATH + GHS STRENGTHENING	LOW

Refinancing pressure indicators — combines commercial debt maturities, multilateral repurchases and programme status. Source: Fiifi Terminal Risk Engine.

COMMODITY EXPOSURE MATRIX — FISCAL BREAKEVEN ANALYSIS

COUNTRY	COMMODITY	GDP SHARE	REVENUE	2026 PRICE	FISCAL BREAKEVEN	TREND	RISK
🇳🇬Nigeria	Oil/Gas	8%	65%	$89	$92/bblNEAR BREAKEVEN — NSE 160tn — DANGOTE IPO OCT	↑	MEDIUM
🇦🇴Angola	Oil	45%	80%	$89	$78/bblABOVE BREAKEVEN — LOBITO CORRIDOR — SADC CHAIR	↑	LOW
🇬🇭Ghana	Gold/Oil/Cocoa	15%	35%	$4,461/oz	$1,800/ozNEW ATH 2.5X — GHS STRENGTHENING — IMF COMPLETE	↑	LOW
🇿🇲Zambia	Copper	12%	70%	$6.61/lb	$5.50/lbABOVE BREAKEVEN — HICHILEMA WINS — LOBITO SECURED	↑	LOW
🇿🇦South Africa	Gold/Platinum	8%	40%	$4,461/oz	$1,600/oz2.8X ATH WINDFALL — INFLATION 4.3% — SARB CUT	↑	LOW
🇨🇩DRC	Cobalt/Copper/Gold	35%	70%	Cobalt $32,000/t	N/AEBOLA 2,378 DEAD — 2ND LARGEST IN HISTORY	↓	CRITICAL
🇸🇩Sudan	Gold	15%	40%	$4,461/oz	N/AEU BAN — GENOCIDE FINDING — CANNOT BENEFIT ATH	↓	CRITICAL

Fiscal breakeven = oil/commodity price needed to balance budget. Red = current price below breakeven (fiscal stress). Green = current price above breakeven (fiscal buffer). Source: IMF, World Bank, Fiifi Terminal estimates.