AFRICA MACRO INTELLIGENCE

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SOVEREIGN RISK

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AFRICA RISK INDEX

STATUS

ELEVATED

LIVE AFRICA RISK MONITOR

Updated October 26, 2026 09:00 UTC (EGP = Oct 25; NGN, ZAR = Oct 23 close; others Oct 22)

TREND: WORSENING

EAST AFRICA

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WEST AFRICA

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NORTH AFRICA

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SOUTHERN AFRICA

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CENTRAL AFRICA

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KEY RISK DRIVERS

Egypt Parliament Votes Today On Military Support For Saudi Arabia — EGP Record Low 55.83 — EGX30 Falls 3.6%

Naira Falls 1.3% To 1,361.84 On Record $1.01bn Interbank Turnover — Parallel 1,385

Brent $116.72 Third Straight Weekly Gain — Houthi Attacks On Saudi Arabia — Fed Decision Wednesday

Ebola: DRC 9,816 Cases 4,757 Dead — Kenya 9 Cases 2 Deaths — Nigeria 1 Case — Uganda 21-Day Quarantine

OCTOBER 26 SIGNAL

October 26, 2026

EGYPT VOTES TODAY ON SAUDI SUPPORT — EGP 55.83 RECORD, EGX30 -3.6% — NAIRA 1,361.84 -1.3% ON RECORD TURNOVER — BRENT $116.72 — FED WEDNESDAY — EBOLA DRC 9,816 KENYA 9

October 26, 2026. Egypt parliament votes today on authorising military support for Saudi Arabia (398 of 596 needed). The pound hit 55.83 on Sunday and the EGX30 fell 3.6% to its lowest since 9 April. In Nigeria the naira fell 1.28% to 1,361.84 at the NFEM on Friday on record interbank turnover of $1.01bn; the parallel rate is 1,385. Brent settled at $116.72, a third straight weekly gain, as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia continue; gold is about $3,994. The Fed decides on Wednesday. Ebola stands at 9,816 cases and 4,757 deaths in DRC (CDC, 22 Oct), 9 cases and 2 deaths in Kenya, and 1 case in Nigeria; Uganda imposes 21-day quarantine on returnees from DRC. 66 days to 31 Dec.

— Lord Fiifi Quayle

TOP SOVEREIGN ALERTS

🇪🇬Egypt

HIGH

EGP RECORD LOW 55.83, EGX30 DOWN 3.6%, PARLIAMENT VOTE TODAY. The pound reached 55.758 buy and 55.896 sell at the CBE on Sunday 25 Oct (record 55.35 on 22 Oct); the EGX30 fell 3.6% to 49,234, its lowest since 9 April, with CIB down 2.5% and Telecom Egypt down 7.4%. Parliament votes today on authorising military support for Saudi Arabia; it needs 398 of 596 votes, and the opposition Egyptian Social Democratic Party told its members to abstain. Sisi says any role would be defensive only and at Saudi request. Houthis attacked Riyadh airport on 10 Oct (13 killed, per Saudi authorities) and Saudi energy sites. Positive items reported: Moody is said to have lifted its Egypt rating or outlook (details unverified) and an IMF mission is in Cairo for the eighth review. External repayments of about $60.9bn are due in FY26/27. The vote result is not yet in my sources.

🇳🇬Nigeria

HIGH

NAIRA -1.3% TO 1,361.84 ON RECORD TURNOVER; FIRST EBOLA CASE. The NFEM weighted average was 1,361.84 on Fri 23 Oct (from 1,344.40 on Thursday and about 1,332 on 16 Oct); the close was about 1,370. Interbank turnover hit a record $1.01bn (versus $316.5m on Thursday) and the CBN raised its dollar sales. Parallel market 1,385 (from 1,373), so the gap narrowed to about N24 (1.76%) as the official rate moved toward it. Reserves were $55.15bn in the latest CBN data. Ebola: one imported case in Abuja (travelled from Uganda 3 Oct per ECDC; symptoms 7 Oct; confirmed 20 Oct); 44 contacts; genomic analysis shows it is closely related to the Kenyan index strain, with no evidence of a direct link; the Swiss government says she did not travel to DRC. Nigeria evacuated another 114 citizens from South Africa on 22 Oct (2,151 in total).

🦠Ebola (Multi-Country)

CRITICAL

DRC 9,816 CASES, 4,757 DEAD (CDC, 22 OCT); KENYA 9 CASES, 2 DEATHS. WHO/ECDC to 20 Oct: DRC 9,704 cases and 4,687 deaths, 66 health zones, 8 provinces, community transmission ongoing. Kenya: 9 cases, all in one cluster, 135 contacts followed; the second death was a 65-year-old woman who had been in contact with the first patient. Uganda will quarantine returnees from DRC for 21 days (health minister, 25 Oct) after two people who transited Uganda tested positive in Kenya and Nigeria; Uganda says it has no active cases. Africa CDC convenes African health ministers on 28 Oct. WHO calls the landscape complex.

🛢️Oil / Gold / Fed

HIGH

BRENT $116.72 FOR A THIRD WEEKLY GAIN; FED DECISION WEDNESDAY. Brent settled $116.72 on Fri 23 Oct (+3.1% on the day, about +6.6% on the week), its highest since 29 April; the 2026 peak earlier in the year was about $120. Monday Asian trade: Brent about $115.2-115.8 (-0.8% to -1.3%), WTI about $101.7-102.3. Houthi attacks continue on Saudi oil sites including Yanbu; reports suggest Washington could resume strikes on Iran after US midterms; the US-Israel war with Iran is nearing its ninth month. Gold about $3,994 (-0.8%), silver $53.88, copper about $12,950 per tonne. FOMC starts Tuesday with the decision Wednesday; as of 14 Oct, markets priced about a 44% chance of a hike this month and 95% for December (Reuters).

🇿🇦South Africa

MEDIUM

RAND 16.51, DATA WEEK, FUEL RELIEF 4 NOV. Rand about 16.50-16.51 after a sharp Thursday fall; 2035 bond yield 8.615%. This week: leading indicator Tuesday; money supply, private credit and PPI Thursday; budget balance and trade Friday. SARB 7.25%, next MPC 19 Nov. Fuel levy relief (R3 diesel, R1.50 petrol) runs 4 Nov-1 Dec, then smaller until 5 Jan; Bloomberg reported fuel prices set to rise in November before the relief. The ultimatum date from March and March is 31 Dec: 66 days.

1AFRICA RISK PRESSURE MAP

Real-time sovereign risk positioning across key African markets.

🇳🇬

Nigeria

Outlook: Cautious

WATCH

CDS (5Y)

360 bps

FX PRESSURE

MODERATE

LIQUIDITY

WATCH

🇬🇭

Ghana

Outlook: Cautious

WATCH

CDS (5Y)

176 bps

FX PRESSURE

MODERATE

LIQUIDITY

STABLE

🇰🇪

Kenya

Outlook: Negative

STRESSED

CDS (5Y)

208 bps

FX PRESSURE

MODERATE

LIQUIDITY

WATCH

🇿🇦

South Africa

Outlook: Cautious

WATCH

CDS (5Y)

188 bps

FX PRESSURE

MODERATE

LIQUIDITY

WATCH

🇪🇬

Egypt

Outlook: Negative

STRESSED

CDS (5Y)

n/a bps

FX PRESSURE

HIGH

LIQUIDITY

TIGHT

🇪🇹

Ethiopia

Outlook: Negative

STRESSED

CDS (5Y)

550 bps

FX PRESSURE

HIGH

LIQUIDITY

TIGHT

STRESSED

TIGHTENING

STABLE

Source: Fiifi Terminal Risk Engine

2WHAT MATTERS NOW

Key macro and market drivers shaping sovereign risk and flows.

🇪🇬

EGYPT: VOTE TODAY, POUND AND STOCKS UNDER PRESSURE

The vote needs a two-thirds majority under Article 152 and comes after the National Defence Council pledged all necessary and possible support on 18 Oct. Sisi says no attack on Yemen. The pound has lost about 10% since 31 Aug and the EGX30 hit its lowest since April. Moody, the IMF mission and the Banque du Caire IPO (top of range) are cited as offsets, but the Saudi deposit position ($10.3bn, with $5.3bn maturing this month) and the vote outcome set the tone this week.

💱

NIGERIA: OFFICIAL RATE STEPS DOWN TO 1,361.84

The naira had traded in a narrow 1,327-1,335 band through most of October. On Thursday it closed at 1,344.40 and on Friday at a weighted average of 1,361.84 (close about 1,370) on a record $1.01bn of interbank turnover. The CBN raised dollar sales. Reuters had flagged expected weakness from holiday-season import demand and profit-taking. The black market is 1,385. Reserves of $55.15bn give the CBN room, but Monday is the test of whether the move holds.

🏦

FED, OIL AND DOLLAR: THE WEEK DRIVER

FOMC meets Tuesday-Wednesday with a hike on the table, per market pricing as of mid-October. Brent at $116.72 and gold under $4,000 feed the same story: higher-for-longer rates and an energy shock. Weak currencies this month are EGP (55.83), UGX (about 4,205), ZMW (about 20.4) and now NGN; the rand (16.51) and cedi (11.66) have held better.

🦠

EBOLA: UGANDA QUARANTINE, MINISTERS MEET 28 OCT

Uganda will quarantine returnees from DRC for 21 days. Kenya reports no community spread and 135 contacts followed. Nigeria is tracing 44 contacts, mostly health workers. In DRC beds in North Kivu are reported nearly full. Watch Wednesday 28 Oct for the Africa CDC ministers meeting and for any second Nigerian case.

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